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Factors that put patients at high risk for progression to severe COVID-19[1]

Factors that put patients at high risk for progression to severe COVID-19[1]
Moderately or severely immunocompromised*
or
High-risk condition and lack of prior immunityΔ plus one of the following:
  • ≥1 high-risk condition that is severe or poorly controlled
  • ≥2 high-risk conditions
  • <1 or ≥12 years of age
This table provides risk factors for progression to severe COVID-19. This information can inform decisions to start antiviral medications in patients with mild to moderate COVID-19 illness. For further details, refer to UpToDate content on management of COVID-19 in children.

AIDS: acquired immunodeficiency syndrome; BMI: body mass index; CAR-T: chimeric antigen receptor T; HIV: human immunodeficiency virus.

* Moderate or severe immunocompromise includes (but is not limited to):
  • Active treatment for solid tumor and hematologic malignancies
  • Hematologic malignancy (eg, chronic lymphocytic leukemia, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, multiple myeloma, acute leukemia) that has been associated with poor response to COVID-19 vaccines, regardless of the patient's current treatment
  • Receipt of a solid organ or islet transplant and on immunosuppressive therapy
  • Receipt of CAR T-cell therapy or a hematopoietic cell transplant and within 2 years of transplantation or receiving immunosuppressive therapy
  • Moderate or severe primary immunodeficiency (eg, severe combined immunodeficiency, DiGeorge syndrome, Wiskott-Aldrich syndrome, common variable immunodeficiency disease)
  • AIDS or untreated HIV infection (defined as people with HIV and CD4 T lymphocyte cell counts <200 cells/microL, a history of an AIDS-defining illness without immune reconstitution, or clinical manifestations of symptomatic HIV)
  • Active treatment with high-dose corticosteroids (ie, ≥20 mg prednisone or equivalent per day when administered for ≥2 weeks), alkylating agents, antimetabolites, transplant-related immunosuppressive drugs, cancer chemotherapeutic agents classified as severely immunosuppressive, or immunosuppressive or immunomodulatory biologic agents (eg, B cell-depleting agents)

¶ High-risk conditions include:

  • Obesity (BMI ≥95th percentile for age), especially severe obesity (BMI ≥120% of 95th percentile for age)
  • Diabetes (type 1 or 2)
  • Prematurity
  • Chronic cardiac, neurologic, or pulmonary disease (excluding asthma)
  • Chronic kidney, gastrointestinal, or liver disease
  • Sickle cell disease
  • Neurologic disabilities

Δ Prior immunity includes being up to date on COVID-19 vaccination and/or having known COVID-19 infection in the last 4 months.

◊ The degree of risk conferred by obesity in younger children is less clear than it is in older adolescents.
Reference:
  1. Willis ZI, Oliveira CR, Abzug MJ, et al. Guidance for prevention and management of COVID-19 in children and adolescents: A consensus statement from the Pediatric Infectious Diseases Society Pediatric COVID-19 Therapies Taskforce. J Pediatric Infect Dis Soc 2024; 13:159.
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